Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction, odds, pick – 7/2/2024

07/01/2024 08:18 PM

Mitch Keller heads to the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they host the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Cardinals-Pirates prediction and pick.

Cardinals-Pirates Projected Starters 

Kyle Gibson vs. Mitch Keller

Kyle Gibson (5-3) with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP

Last Start: Gibson pitched four innings in his previous start, giving up four hits and five walks. Gibson gave up four runs and took the loss to the Braves.

2024 Road Splits: Gibson has made seven starts on the road this year, going 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a .172 opponent batting average

Mitch Keller (9-4) with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

Last Start: Keller went 5.2 innings in his last start, giving up six hits and three walks. He would give up four runs, with three earned. Keller would be credited with the win over the Reds.

2024 Home Splits: Keller has made seven starts at home this year, going 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and an opponent batting average of .216.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Cardinals-Pirates Odds

St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline: +104

Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: -122

Over: 8.5 (-105)

Under: 8.5 (-115)

How to Watch Cardinals vs. Pirates

Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT

TV: BSMW/SNP

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Cardinals are 27th in the majors in runs scored while sitting 17th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging. Brendan Donovan has been solid this year. He is hitting .264 on the year with a .333 on-base percentage. He has just eight home runs but leads the team with 41 RBIS and scored 36 times this year. Alex Burelson has also been solid on the year. He is hitting .278 on the year, with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs. He has scored 32 times. Leading the team in home runs this year is Nolan Gorman. He is hitting just .187 on the year with 16 home runs and 37 RBIs. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt leads the team in runs scored this year. He is hitting .225 on the year with 11 home runs, 33 RBIs and 39 runs scored.

Alec Burleson has been driving in plenty of runs this past week. He is hitting just .208 weekly, with six RBIs and a run scored. Brendan Donovan has been solid in the last week. He has hitting .292 in the last week. A double, three RBIS a stolen base, and a run scored. Meanwhile, Michael Siani has the hottest bat in the last week. He has hit .444 in the last week with two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. He has scored four times in the last week.

The Cardinals have 136 career at-bats against Mitch Keller. They have hit .250 against Keller with a .306 on-base percentage. They have four home runs and 12 RBIs against Keller. Paul Goldschmidt is six for 26 against Keller with a home run, three RBIs, and three walks. Meanwhile, Willson Contreras is five for 15 with two doubles a home run, and two RBIs. Nolan Arenado also has some success against Keller, going four for 20 with a home run and four RBIs.

Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Pirates are 25th in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 27th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds has led the way this year. He is hitting .275 on the year while getting on base at a .341 rate. Reynolds has 13 home runs and 46 RBIs while scoring 35 times on the year. Oneil Cruz has also been solid this year. He is hitting .239 on the year with a .294 on-base percentage. He has 12 home runs and 36 RBIs while scoring 36 times. Rounding out the top bats on the year with Connor Joe. Joe is hitting .248 on the year with a .329 on-base percentage. He has seven home runs, 28 RBIS, and 38 runs scored.

Oneil Cruz has also been solid in the last week. He is hitting just .227 but with two home runs, five RBIs and three runs scored. Meanwhile, Rowdy Tellex has also been hitting well. He is hitting .250 in the last week, also with two home runs. He has four RBIs and four runs scored in the last week. Bryan Reynolds just saw his long-hitting streak broken, but he is hitting .269 in the last week with a triple, a home run, three RBIs, and two runs scored.

The Pirates have 49 career at-bats against Kyle Gibson. They have hit .245 against him with four home runs and six RBIs. Nolan Arenado has just one hit, but it is a home run with two RBIs. Meanwhile, Nolan Gorman is one for four with a home run and two walks against Gibson.

Final Cardinals-Pirates Prediction & Pick

This is a game with two struggling offenses and two solid pitchers. Gibson has been better on the road than at home while Keller has been better at home than on the road. Both pitchers should have solid games against two of the lowest-scoring offensive units in nthe majors. The Pirates should get a win, but the best play in this one is on the total. Take the under.

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Final Cardinals-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) 

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