Bruins vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick – 1/4/2025

01/03/2025 04:10 PM

The Boston Bruins will battle the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday at the Scotiabank Arena. It’s an Original 6 showdown in Toronto as we share our NHL odds series and make a Bruins-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.

The Bruins are 48-35 over the past 83 games against the Maple Leafs. Furthermore, they are 8-2 over the past 10 games against the Leafs. The Bruins are 3-2 over the past five games against the Leafs. Yet, the Bruins have split the two games with the Maple Leafs this season, while the Leafs have covered both games. The Bruins eliminated the Maple Leafs last season and hope to replicate that success in this game.

Here are the Bruins-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NHL Odds: Bruins-Maple Leafs Odds

Boston Bruins: +1.5 (-235)

Moneyline: +112

Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+186)

Moneyline: -134

Over: 5.5 (-138)

Under: 5.5 (+112)

How To Watch Bruins vs Maple Leafs 

Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT

TV: ESPN+ and NESN

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Why the Bruins Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Bruins are hovering around the middle of the NHL standings and still have a chance to make the playoffs, as they are currently clinging to third place in the Atlantic Division. But they must find a way to be more consistent. Specifically, goal-scoring has been an issue at times, and continued against the lowly New York Rangers, where they managed just one goal.

When the Bruins beat the Maple Leafs earlier this season, they did it through simplicity, with their top lines performing. Specifically, Brad Marchand had one goal and one assist, while David Pastrnak also had a goal and an assist. Pavel Zacha added a helper in this game.

A recurring issue for the Bruins in their two games against the Maple Leafs has been their inability to control the puck. Specifically, they are always behind the eight ball because they often lose faceoffs. Even in their 4-3 overtime win, they won just 40 percent of their draws. The biggest difference in this game was the opportunities on special teams. Mainly, the Bruins went 1 for 5 on the powerplay and killed all three penalties they gave to the Leafs. Blocking 19 shots also helped the Bruins in this game. Jeremy Swayman must play better. Significantly, he played well even in defeat against the Rangers, stopping 25 of 27 shots.

The Bruins will cover the spread if they can do a better job on the faceoff circle and help give opportunities to Pastrnak and Marchand. Then, they must do a better job of defending, not allowing the Leafs to have too many chances.

Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win

Despite a reoccurring injury to Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs have remained competitive this season and remain on top of the Atlantic Division. Amazingly, they have done fairly well against the Bruins this season, even in the overtime loss. When the Leafs played the Bruins at home, they shut them out 4-0.

It was a great game for the offense, beating the Bruins without Matthews. Ultimately, defenseman Morgan Rielly led the offense with one goal and two assists. William Nylander added a goal and an assist. Likewise, Mitchell Marner had two helpers to help the offense. Matthew Knies added one goal and one assist.

The Leafs dominated the puck, winning 55 percent of the faceoff. Additionally, they went 3 for 7 on the powerplay and killed all six penalties. The defense was exceptional in this game, leveling 19 hits and blocking 12 shots. But it was mainly thanks to Anthony Stolarz, who stopped all 29 shots he faced. Unfortunately, Stolarz is injured, and Joseph Woll will start in this game.

The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if their offense can continue getting free and finding ways to get open shooting lanes. Then, they must defend the crease and not allow Pastrank to get easy shooting lanes.

Final Bruins-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

The Bruins are 13-27 against the spread, while the Maple Leafs are 21-18 against the odds. Moreover, the Bruins are 6-14 against the spread on the road, while the Leafs are 12-10 against the odds at home. The Bruins are 18-21-1 against the over/under, while the Leafs are 17-19-3 against the over/under.

The Bruins have played better over the last few weeks. Likewise, the Leafs continue to play well. I think the Bruins have a chance to cover the spread. Furthermore, I can see them making this much more competitive than the last time the teams faced off in Toronto. I have the Bruins covering the spread on the road this time around, making the Maple Leafs earn every goal.

Final Bruins-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Bruins +1.5 (-235)

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