Bills X-factor vs. Chiefs in AFC Championship Game, and it's not Josh Allen

01/22/2025 03:12 AM

The Buffalo Bills will once again take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Playoffs, this time in the 2025 AFC Championship. The two franchises have met in the postseason now four out of the last five years, with Patrick Mahomes’ team getting the better of Josh Allen’s squad in all three matchups so far. The Bills are trying to get to their first Super Bowl since 1994. With two more wins, Buffalo would hoist its first Lombardi trophy ever.

Josh Allen enters this matchup as one of the frontrunners for MVP. The Bills leader under center had his best year statically of his career, posting the second-highest QBR in the league at 77.3. Through two postseason games, Allen has thrown for 399 total yards, rushed for 66 yards, and scored four touchdowns. Buffalo’s offense will ultimately need to be prolific against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that only allowed 19.2 points per game during the regular season.

However, what happens on the other side of the field is even more important heading into this matchup. Because, the Chiefs’ offense and Bills’ defense have both struggled at times during 2024 but appear to be playing their best football when it matters most.

Also, the past three straight elimination losses for the Bills against their AFC foe have been mainly due to their defense getting gashed by Patrick Mahomes and company. But that didn’t happen in Buffalo’s home win against Kansas City during the regular season. And there’s a certain linebacker who caused chaos against the Chiefs on offense during week 11 and is the X-factor for Sunday’s game.

Terrel Bernard is the X-factor for the AFC Championship

The 25-year-old X-factor can be unassuming at times. Bernard recorded 104 total tackles this season, with one sack, two interceptions, and 13 tackles for loss. However, the ex-Baylor linebacker’s presence, particularly in pass coverage, is critical for this game.

Even though Travis Kelce had the lowest receiving yard total of his career in 2024, the superstar tight end had a monster performance in Kansas City’s win over the Houston Texans. Kelce caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. This was the all-time great tight end’s best performance of the season as he added another legendary playoff showing to his resume.

Buffalo’s ability to disrupt the Kelce-Mahomes connection is critical in this contest. And this need seems like a big concern for the Bills, considering their defense gives up 226.1 passing yards a game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. In addition, when the Chiefs eliminated the Bills in the Divisional Round last season, Kelce had seven receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns.

However, if the regular season is any indication, the Bills held the legendary tight end to just eight yards on November 17. Bernard was all over the field, recording eight tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss, one pass defended, and one interception.

The Chiefs scored only 21 points in a game that Buffalo was predominately in control of. Bernard will need to replicate this kind of performance for a defense that has put up very little resistance to Kansas City in the past postseason clashes. Luckily, the third-year linebacker is in solid form, having forced and recovered a critical fourth-quarter fumble from Ravens tight end Mark Andrews last weekend.

What’s at stake for the Buffalo Bills

It may not always be the best term, but it applies here. This is a legacy game for Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Josh Allen. The pairing has revitalized a franchise that, when McDermott was hired, was suffering the longest postseason drought in major American sports. That drought is over, and Buffalo has now made it to the playoffs six straight years.

Buffalo made it to the AFC Championship with this pairing in 2021, and Kansas City won that game at home 38-24. While Allen has a decent record against Mahomes in the regular season, he hasn’t beaten his greatest foe when it has mattered most. There are almost no improvements that a player or organization can make every single year. But, with every postseason loss for this Bills franchise, especially the ones to the Chiefs, it feels like Buffalo is trending toward now-or-never mode.

Even though they couldn’t get the No. 1 seed, Sean McDermott and company have had a fantastic season. The Bills went 13-4 in a year that included a dominant seven-game win streak. Josh Allen has a solid receiving core and a 1,000-yard rusher in James Cook.

The Bills defense has been gaining momentum, even picking up some critical turnovers against MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense. Buffalo has looked the part, and now is the time to overcome its biggest mental hurdle.

A loss in this AFC Championship and the question will emerge if the pairing of Sean McDermott and Josh Allen are the ones who can bring this organization its first Super Bowl. A title that this fanbase, for how loyal they’ve been throughout the years, deserves. Terrel Bernard can go a long way toward helping break this drought for this beloved franchise.

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