Astros vs. Twins prediction, odds, pick – 7/5/2024
07/05/2024 11:06 AM
We’re back and ready for another betting prediction and pick in the MLB as we head to the American League for this next matchup between two contenders in their divisions. The Houston Astros will visit the Minnesota Twins for the beginning of their three-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Astros-Twins prediction and pick.
Astros-Twins Projected Starters
Shawn Dubin (RHP) vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP)
Shawn Dubin (1-1) with a 4.91 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 27 K, 25.2 IP
Last Start: 6/30 @ NYM (W) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
2024 Road Splits: (0-0) with a 4.22 ERA, .179 OBA, 12 K, 10.2 IP
Pablo Lopez (8-6) with a 4.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 110 K, 94.0 IP
Last Start: 6/29 @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
2024 Home Splits: (3-3) with a 5.14 ERA, .286 OBA, 43 K, 42.0 IP
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Twins Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-156)
Moneyline: +132
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: -156
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Astros vs. Twins
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/ 5:10 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN+, MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Houston Astros are currently second in the AL West and trail the Seattle Mariners by just two games heading into the All-Star break. They’ve had a solid season by their standards, sitting just above .500, but they’re known to go on runs in the back-half of the season and we should see a fun race between them and the Mariners. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 and have outscored opponents by 39 runs during that stretch. They continue to lead the majors in batting average and their potent offense has become apparent heading into this series.
Shawn Dubin will take the mound in this game and make just his second start of the season for his team. He typically makes appearances in relief and has helped Houston notch victories in his last three outings. He’s been slightly better with his splits on the road and he’s only allowed seven hits throughout his time pitching in relief. They won’t expect him to make a deep run into this game, but he’s got a steady and consistent game that could ensure them at least three solid innings to start this game. The action in the bullpen will be key for the Astros all game long.
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Minnesota Twins are also in second place with the AL Central, trailing the Cleveland Guardians by six games. They’ll have a tough race this season against one of the hottest teams in the MLB, but they’re confident in hosting this series at home where they have a 24-17 record. The Twins are also right behind the Astros in fifth-place for slugging percentage in the MLB, so there’s no doubt we could see some runs get scored during this game. Minnesota has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have notched wins in three consecutive series.
Pablo Lopez will make his ninth home start of this season where his numbers are slightly elevated compared to what they are on the road. Still, he’s given up less homers on their home field and he’s been able to take some of his starts into the deeper innings. Just two starts ago, he pitched through eight innings with no earned runs and 14 strikeouts. He’s clearly capable of a lights-out performance and we’ll see if he can get his bearings at home and do the same.
Final Astros-Twins Prediction & Pick
Both teams are keeping their divisional races close and they’ll be eager to pick up some wins before the All-Star break and close-in on some of these gaps. Pablo Lopez is a great pitching option for the Twins as his team has won the last four games he’s started. While he’s better with his stuff on the road, his home splits aren’t much worse and he’ll look for another deep-inning run.
Still, the Houston Astros are seeing the ball well right now and their offense has been humming over the month of June. I expect them to carry this same momentum into the All-Star break as they’re beginning to see their pitchers dial-in as well. Yordan Alvarez is continuing his reign from the batter’s box and they should do enough to lift themselves to a win here. While their pitcher Dubin will be making just his second appearance on the season as a starter, he’s been solid in the relief spot and his confidence on the road hasn’t wavered one bit.
For our prediction, let’s roll with the Houston Astros to grab the win and the total to go over as both teams see success from the plate.
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Final Astros-Twins Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros ML (+132); OVER 8 (-118)
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