Ashton Jeanty bold predictions for Boise State-Penn State Fiesta Bowl clash

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Boise State football returns to a place filled with personal fond memories. This time, the Broncos have Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty in tow for the Fiesta Bowl.

The Broncos return to Glendale, Arizona to capture their fourth Fiesta Bowl championship. Jeanty walks into State Farm Stadium as the major attraction for BSU. He’s shattered school records already. Now Jeanty is 132 yards away from breaking the single season rushing yards mark held by Barry Sanders since 1988.

But standing in the way is Big 10 Conference challenger Penn State. The same Nittany Lions team that just smothered SMU to open the College Football Playoffs.

This marks the first time Boise State will face a Big 10 foe on this stage. Will Jeanty wear down and dismantle one more defense? This time from the Big 10? Time to dive into some bold predictions involving the nation’s leading rusher.

Ashton Jeanty will break off 1 run of 20+ yards

Penn State’s run defense presents a more stout challenge for the 2,000-yard RB.

The Nittany Lions ranked fourth among Big 10 teams against the run. But they really bottled Brashard Smith of the Mustangs Saturday — holding him to 62 yards. But his longest scamper was a 16-yarder.

With all due respect to the talented Smith, he’s not Jeanty. Boise State’s RB1 brings more power and balance, especially after contact.

Jeanty surpasses 25 carries 

Penn State hasn’t seen an opponent feed its running back 25 times or more off handoffs. Jeanty will change that.

Boise State has given Jeanty the ball for 25 carries or more nine times this season. The Broncos play so much better when he’s given that many touches.

Jeanty earned that number of carries against his last Big 10 opponent Oregon earlier this season. But here’s one stat to monitor: Boise State is 8-0 this season when Jeanty scales the 25-carry mark. Penn State is at a disadvantage if Jeanty stays in the game and surpasses that number of handoffs.

Jeanty finds the end zone once

Signs are indicating the 2025 Fiesta Bowl will become a defensive battle. That doesn’t mean Jeanty won’t step across the goal line.

The more Jeanty is involved in the game, the higher the chances he’ll score. Broncos offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will feed Jeanty until he scores. And Koetter will keep feeding him from there.

The Nittany Lions will do everything in their power to bottle the long runs. They’ll make Jeanty work for his points. Except Jeanty still will find his way into the end zone.

Jeanty gets 100 yards, but struggles to reach that mark

The sixth-seeded Lions aren’t expected to shy away from loading up the box. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen looks bound to bring eight to nine defenders near the line of scrimmage before Jeanty gets his carries.

Allen created a masterful gameplan last Saturday against SMU. He sent multiple pressure looks to rattle dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings and force him into interceptions. Smith also got contained throughout the afternoon.

Jeanty will present the toughest RB challenge yet for PSU. But this defense will make him earn his yards. Jeanty only tops the 100-yard mark by the fourth quarter.

Jeanty, Boise State’s season witnesses this first at the Fiesta Bowl 

Unfortunately all good things come to an end as the old saying goes. That includes Boise State’s dominance in the Fiesta Bowl.

Yes, BSU has quite the history of success in Glendale. The Broncos even took down two power conference opponents in the indoor facility in the desert. Penn State is a far different animal, however.

Jeanty will face his best run defensive challenge to date. The Lions are additionally riding the wave of their impressive romp of SMU. Penn State barely allowing over 100 yards per game rushing wise indicates Jeanty and BSU are in for a longer night.

This Fiesta Bowl presents itself as a potential classic. But head coach James Franklin and PSU finally return to the national title game picture by holding off the Heisman finalist and the best Group of Five team left. In the process, Boise State takes its first ever Fiesta Bowl loss.

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