Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens Australian Open prediction, odds, pick – 1/12/2025
01/10/2025 07:18 PM
Aryna Sabalenka plays Sloane Stephens in the first round of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sabalenka-Stephens prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sabalenka-Stephens.
Aryna Sabalenka is the best female hardcourt player in the world. Iga Swiatek has clay, but Aryna Sabalenka has concrete. She makes the hard life look easy. She has won each of the previous two Australian Open championships, and she just added her first U.S. Open championship last September in New York. Swiatek is an elite player. She and Sabalenka have traded blows in a compelling battle for the top spot in women’s tennis in recent years. On hardcourts, however, Sabalenka has the upper hand and has earned the right to be considered the top favorite at the 2025 Australian Open.
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is former U.S. Open champion and former French Open finalist Sloane Stephens. The American veteran has had her moments in a long and lucrative career, but given how well Stephens played at the height of her powers in 2017 and 2018, it has been surprising and disappointing to see her not remain a top-10-level player. Her career had so much promise. Stephens is a gifted athlete, with considerable courtspeed and the ability to hit the ball with different spins. Stephens, at her best, can calmly absorb an opponent’s best shots in several baseline exchanges and then instantly increase her power or weight of shot to smack a winner or a leverage-gaining shot into the corner or down the line. It seemed like a style of tennis which was sustainable. It’s not as though Stephens played go-for-broke tennis. She played percentage tennis and became good at picking the right time to go bigger. However, Stephens has not been able to build her career the way she had hoped.
Her groundstrokes are inconsistent. Her serve has not markedly improved and become a difference-making weapon. Elements of her game have stagnated instead of evolving. She is still a capable player, but she is no longer a player who is expected to do well in big tournaments. This match against Sabalenka is an early measuring stick for her 2025 season and will give her a lot of information on where she goes from here.
Here are the Sabalenka-Stephens Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Sabalenka-Stephens Odds
Game Spread
Sabalenka -7.5 (+116)
Stephens +7.5 (-154)
Moneyline
Sabalenka -4000
Stephens +1400
To Win First Set
Sabalenka -1450
Stephens +830
Total Games In Match
Over 17.5 (-108)
Under 17.5 (-124)
Total Games Won
Sabalenka over 12.5 (+200)
Sabalenka under 12.5 (-280)
Stephens over 5.5 (-106)
Stephens under 5.5 (-126)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: Approx. 3 a.m. ET/12 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN2
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is simply a much, much better tennis player than Sloane Stephens. Also, she is the two-time defending Australian Open champion and, as we said above, the best hardcourt player in women’s tennis right now. Sloane Stephens does not have the consistency or elite quality to stay with Sabalenka over two full sets. Sabalenka might start a little sluggishly, but she will win at least one set 6-2 or 6-1 and do enough to cover the spread while Stephens will fade away.
Why Sloane Stephens Will Win
It’s a first-round match. Even the elite players don’t always play well right out of the gate. If Stephens can swipe the first set against a hesitant Sabalenka, that could be all Stephens needs to win the match and shake up this Australian Open.
Final Sabalenka-Stephens Prediction & Pick
If you take Stephens to win over 5.5 games, you’re getting a higher price than Stephens +7.5, but if you take Stephens +7.5 instead of over 5.5 games, you could win your bet if it’s a 6-4, 6-1 or 6-3, 6-2 win for Sabalenka. You would lose the over 5.5 bet. You have more wiggle room if you go with a spread bet than a total games bet. Take Stephens plus the games, as opposed to over the total.
Final Sabalenka-Stephens Prediction & Pick: Stephens +7.5
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