Aces vs Mercury WNBA prediction, odds, pick – 9/1/2024
09/01/2024 01:10 AM
The Las Vegas Aces take on the Phoenix Mercury. Our WNBA odds series has our Aces Mercury prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Aces Mercury.
The Las Vegas Aces finally covered a spread. They haven’t done that most of the time this season, but they did on Friday against the Atlanta Dream… by one point. The line at tipoff was 10.5 points. The Aces scored an 11-point win over the Dream. We said in our preview of that game that until the Aces prove they can cover a spread, it’s not smart to keep betting on them.
What now? The Aces did cover, but it was by the slightest of margins. Does that resolve the issue or not? It might be the case that this game against the Mercury in Phoenix will give us a better picture of where the Aces stand, two and a half weeks before the regular season ends.
Vegas, at home versus Atlanta, was a rested team playing the Dream, who were in the middle of a long Western road trip. The logistics lined up in the Aces’ favor, and they took advantage. Now Vegas has to go on the road to play a Phoenix team which has been at home all week and hasn’t played since Wednesday. If Vegas can come through here, maybe the Aces still have the resolve needed to become a very tough out in the playoffs. However, they can’t just expect to flip the switch. They need to display quality consistency before the playoffs arrive. Here’s a good test of their mindset and commitment.
Here are the Aces-Mercury WNBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
WNBA Odds: Aces-Mercury Odds
Las Vegas Aces: -4.5 (-106)
Moneyline: -188
Phoenix Mercury: +4.5 (-114)
Moneyline: +152
Over: 168.5 (-110)
Under: 168.5 (-110)
How To Watch Aces vs Mercury
Time: 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT
TV: Mercury Live, WNBA League Pass
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why The Aces Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Aces covered a spread, so it seems at least a little more reasonable to think they can cover a spread here. The spread is not that big. A’Ja Wilson is the best player in the WNBA. The New York Liberty are the best, most complete team, but Wilson is the superstar who is doing absolutely everything she can to propel her ballclub. If Wilson is the best player on the floor in this game, that would go a long way toward helping Vegas cover the spread.
Let’s also realize that Phoenix has lost three of its last four games. The Mercury have not been anywhere close to their best since the Olympic break. It’s hard to trust Phoenix at the moment.
Why The Mercury Can Cover The Spread/Win
The spread should be 1.5 or 2.5 points for the Aces, not 4.5. Vegas still hasn’t shown it can regularly play at a high level this season. The Aces will occasionally play a strong game but — in most of their wins — have had to fight for everything. They have not been able to easily subdue most of their opponents. The supporting cast surrounding A’Ja Wilson has not been nearly as good as it was last season, when everything fell into place for the Aces.
Phoenix, as we noted above, is very rested for this game. Vegas, on the other hand, played on Friday. One should expect an inspired effort from the Mercury, who are now in the No. 7 playoff spot due to losing a tiebreaker to the Indiana Fever. The Mercury have something to prove, and they also have something to play for: moving back up to the No. 6 seeding position.
Final Aces-Mercury Prediction & Pick
Phoenix +4.5 seems like great value. This should be a very close game, and if it goes down to the wire, getting 4.5 points sure is a big advantage from a betting perspective. Take the Mercury.
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Final Aces-Mercury Prediction & Pick: Mercury +4.5
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