3 reasons why Notre Dame can stun Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
12/21/2024 02:24 PM
In their third College Football Playoff appearance, Notre Dame topped Indiana 27-17 to claim the first win of the 12-team era. They move on to the Sugar Bowl and face No. 2-seeded Georgia on New Year’s Day 2025 in New Orleans.
Georgia will undoubtedly be a stiffer test for the Fighting Irish, but the team, which is seeking its first national championship since 1988, has a better chance than some initially believed. Notre Dame flexed its defensive muscles against Indiana, holding the nation’s top-scoring offense to just three points for most of the game. They now face backup quarterback Gunner Stockton with Carson Beck out with an elbow injury.
For just the second time since Sept. 14, Notre Dame will have to hit the road and travel to the Caesars Superdome. The New Orleans location favors Georgia, but the Irish have been stout away from home all season long.
Notre Dame will pressure Gunner Stockton
They have yet to officially rule Beck out for the game but Georgia is reportedly preparing to face Notre Dame with Stockton under center. The sophomore will make his first career start in the College Football Playoffs. That worked for Ohio State with Cardale Jones in 2014 but historically, teams have understandably flopped in such scenarios.
Where Stockton will face his toughest challenge is against the Notre Dame pass rush. During Georgia’s toughest tests, Beck was constantly under pressure in the pocket, including the play that led to his elbow injury. The Irish enter the matchup with 33 sacks on the year, the 27th-most in the country.
In their opening-round matchup, Notre Dame sacked Kurtis Rourke three times, the second-most he had taken all season. While Beck has been the fourth-fewest sacked quarterback in the SEC, he was taken down multiple times in six of Georgia’s nine conference games. That includes two games — Texas and Ole Miss — in which he absorbed five sacks.
Georgia should struggle to run the ball
College football fans have been harsh on Beck all season long but Georgia is best when he is in a rhythm. Without him, their offense will theoretically be limited, even with Stockton’s former four-star profile.
Once Beck went down in the SEC Championship Game, Georgia delivered a heavy dose of Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier out of the backfield. Their offense is already predicated on screen passes and quick throws, but that is not how teams have beaten Notre Dame in 2024. Etienne and Frazier both found success against Texas, but Marcus Freeman’s defense is at a different level.
On the year, Georgia is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry as a team. That falls in line with Notre Dame limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per carry, a top-30 mark in the nation. Indiana entered their matchup as the top-rated rushing offense in the country but got just 71 total combined yards out of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton.
In Notre Dame’s only loss in the year, Northern Illinois ran for 190 yards as a team on them. Louisville’s notoriously pass-heavy offense generated 131 rushing yards against them in a 31-24 loss. When teams have found success against the Irish’s stingy defense, they have been able to run the ball. That has not been Georgia’s forte this season.
Georgia will struggle to contain Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard
Georgia has struggled in several different aspects of the game this season and has been uniquely vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. Aside from Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Riley Leonard will arguably be the best dual-threat quarterback Kirby Smart will have to prepare for all year.
In both of their losses, the Bulldogs allowed opposing quarterbacks to find monumental success on the ground. Most notably, Milroe ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns against them in a high-powered shootout that Alabama won 41-34. There was a lot of offense all around, but Milroe’s rushing production was a big factor that Georgia could not stop.
In their second loss to Ole Miss, Georgia allowed Jaxson Dart to run through their defense. Dart’s 50 rushing yards led the team and marked his third-highest single-game total of the year. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King added 110 rushing yards against Smart’s defense in their final regular season game.
Whenever Georgia has faced a dual-threat quarterback in 2024, it has struggled immensely to keep opposing signal-callers in the pocket. Leonard figures to have a similar level of success against them.
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