Knies

03/18/2025 03:21 PM

When word got out that the Toronto Maple Leafs had approached Mitch Marner about waiving his no-trade clause as the team explored a trade for Mikko Rantanen, it opened up a pandora’s box of questions for fans and media alike.

Do the Leafs intend to extend Marner this off-season when he is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent? Knowing the team had interest in moving him to Carolina, does Marner want to remain a Leaf beyond this season? Given Rantanen signed a $12 million AAV for eight seasons in Dallas, what will Marner's next contract look like?

If Toronto fails to go on a deep playoff run again this season, is it time for the team to try something different anyway?

The Maple Leafs find themselves in an interesting position. They have two of the most expensive "own rentals" in the league, with both Marner and John Tavares on expiring contracts. But where Marner stands to get a salary increase from his current $10.9 million, Tavares’ next deal won’t be as lucrative and should drop from $11 million. Sure, Tavares is having a solid season (27G-29A) but he's also 34 years old. I'm sure he would like to remain a Leaf for the rest of his career and he's still a valuable player, but even with the cap rising I'm pencilling in his next deal to land at around $6 million per year. 

The Leafs have been caught up in a cycle prioritizing signing their core four players — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares — and then attempting to patch the rest of the roster together with whatever money is left over. This season Toronto has $46.65 million invested in those four forwards, which equals 53 per cent of their available space.

But, this time, there is another very important contract for the Leafs to get done. Matthew Knies will be a 22-year-old restricted free agent after the season, but unlike with Marner or Tavares, Toronto shouldn’t wait on a playoff result to act. In my opinion, the Leafs need to prioritize Knies and sign him to a long-term extension before they strategize how to spend the rest of their cap dollars on any other pending free agents. 

So, let’s take a look at what the player brings to the table that should make him the top priority to re-sign, and then a hockey operations perspective as to my strategy regarding Knies:

PLAYER ANALYSIS

It's difficult to find a player in the league who is as young as Knies and plays the same style he does. He's a power forward who averages over 18 minutes of ice time per game and is deployed in all situations. 

He has 24 goals and 44 points in 63 games. His 20 even strength goals are second on the Leafs to William Nylander, and tied for 21st in the entire NHL.

Knies isn't a consistent play driver through the neutral zone, but is most proficient at extending plays in the offensive zone and creating havoc around his opponent's crease. He's only generated 113 shots on goal this year and his high shooting percentage (21.2) is a reflection of where he gets his opportunities from.

Here's a look at Knies’ heat map displaying the area of the ice he directs pucks on net from:

Knies is also a physical player who has dished out 148 hits so far this season, second to Steven Lorentz (164) amongst Leafs forwards. Simon Benoit leads the team with 172 hits. 

Already in his young career Knies has proven that he is a top-six forward who complements players that are more comfortable making plays from the perimeter and handling the puck for extended periods of time (Matthews and Marner). He opens up space for skill forwards to create offence with his combination of size, skill and willingness to battle for pucks and position in the hard areas of the ice (net front and along the boards).

Toronto needs to make sure a player like this is a central piece in the coming years.

CONTRACT ANALYSIS

The first order of business when figuring out what Knies should make on his next deal is to dissect who is under contract for next year and beyond. Courtesy of our friends at PuckPedia, here's the Leafs’ roster breakdown including pending unrestricted free agents and restricted free agents:

Toronto has the bulk of its roster signed through next season, especially on the blue line and in goal, but there’s a chance for more fluidity up front. It’s obvious that the most important orders of business will be with Knies, Marner and Tavares.

With the salary cap rising to $95.5 million next season, and to around $113.5 million by the time the 2027-28 season begins, the Leafs have $27.786 million to spend this summer before re-signing anyone. 

Knies is a pending restricted free agent. If Toronto doesn’t get him signed to an extension before the start of free agency their first order of business will be to tender his qualifying offer. He’ll end up signing a much larger contract than that, but his qualifying offer is set at $874,125.

Who are Knies’ contract comparables?

Knies is a bit of a unicorn. Like I mentioned earlier, it's difficult for me to identify another player under the age of 23 who brings the same combination of size (6-foot-3, 227 pounds) and skill that he provides the Leafs. 

Although they are completely different players, an argument can be made that Knies is as valuable to the Leafs as 24-year-old Cole Caufield is to the Montreal Canadiens. Caufield is likely to score more goals than Knies over the course of his career, but Knies contributes to the overall team game more than Caufield. 

A part of me also believes that Knies has the potential to contribute in a similar way to Zach Hyman in Edmonton. It should be noted that Hyman has become a much better player in Edmonton than he was in Toronto. He spiked offensively playing alongside, and complementing, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and other Oilers with his approach. 

It’s difficult for me to find an exact comparison for Knies, but I’ve settled on Los Angeles’ Quinton Byfield as an example of a player with similar traits.

Byfield is listed at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. He has the skill set to play centre or the wing, which is different than Knies who is a power winger only, but close enough for the purpose of this exercise. Byfield averages over 18 minutes per game for the Kings and, like Knies, is deployed in all situations. One of the biggest differences between Knies and Byfield is the fact Byfield has only been credited with 67 hits.

With the reminder that it’s hard to find an exact comparison in every category, here is a look at the career trajectory for Byfield to date, followed by Knies.

Quinton Byfield career trajectory:

Byfield is currently in the first season of a five-year extension he signed last summer before teams were fully aware of how massively the cap would rise in the next few years. His $6.25 million cap hit in relation to his contributions in all facets of the game should age nicely for the Kings. Byfield will be an unrestricted free agent at the tender age of 26 when this deal expires after the 2028-29 season.

He will be in the prime of his career when the salary cap is in excess of $113.5 million and looking to cash in when he is up for his extension. 

Matthew Knies career trajectory:

Byfield had more NHL experience at an earlier age, but Knies has played a more physically punishing style of game and is on track to outscore Byfield this season, when both are 22 years old. If Knies continues on the trajectory he is on he's destined to score at least 30 goals next season. 

Knies’ next contract could end up being a bridge deal like Byfield signed, or it could end up being an eight-year extension that provides the Leafs cost certainty for years to come. Either way, Knies is going to get paid this off-season and I value him more than Byfield overall. 

So, when looking what an extension for Knies could look like, we should consider:

• If Knies decides he prefers the same route as Byfield and signs a five-year extension, I believe his number will land around $7.5 million (AAV) in Toronto. At first glance that number might appear high — Byfield’s number accounted for 7.1 per cent of the cap when he signed, whereas this number for Knies would be 7.8 per cent of next year’s cap. But there are some different factors. We now know the salary cap will rise considerably in the coming years and we have to re-calibrate how we view AAVs. Plus, Knies is trending towards being a 30-goal scorer as soon as next season. I believe this number makes sense for both him and the organization.

• I’d be advising Knies to lean towards a five-year extension instead of an eight-year deal. That’s because of how aggressively the cap is expected to shoot up. He might be leaving a good chunk of money on the table if he signs for maximum term.

• If Knies is more interested in the security of an eight-year contract, I’d see a path to something in the $8-8.5 million range, considering Toronto would be buying up three UFA years in this scenario.

STRATEGIC CONCLUSION

1. Signing Knies should be Toronto’s top off-season priority. His extension will provide the framework to assess the rest of the roster with the remaining cap space. The Leafs would also be wise to get this extension done early and not let it drag into the summer when the possibility of an offer sheet will exist.

2. Sign Marner if the group has some success in the playoffs. If they don't, it's time to move on and spend the cap dollars a different way to balance the lineup. The Leafs aren't likely to find a point producing forward like Marner on the open market, but if he prices himself well above Rantanen's $12 million AAV the organization could realistically go shopping for two very good $6 million players to round out their roster. After everything with Rantanen, Colorado looks like a deeper and more dangerous team now that they have invested in other ways.

3. Tavares still has gas left in the tank, but a team always runs the risk of an aging veteran suddenly hitting the wall and not having the legs to impact the game the same way after their 35^th birthday. I'd recommend signing Tavares, but my comfort level lands on a $5 million AAV for no more than three years. 

My biggest fear in all of this is the real chance a team could end up offering Knies a contract via an offer sheet. If Toronto decides to sign Marner and Tavares (or others in free agency) ahead of Knies they could expose themselves. Competing organizations would then know how much money the Leafs have left to sign Knies and swoop in with an offer Toronto either couldn’t match, or would be hard-pressed to. Teams like Carolina or Philadelphia immediately come to mind.

The Leafs should prioritize keeping control over Knies’ cost and not allow another team to set that bar. If the Leafs let this linger and then spend on other players in the meantime, they could put themselves in a similar position to the Oilers last summer when they lost Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to St. Louis offer sheets.

It’s imperative, in my opinion, to get Knies signed as soon as possible. The Leafs have gone down the road of prioritizing their core four for several years. Now, Knies should be priority number one for them this off-season.