What will make season one of the Raptors' rebuild a success?

11/20/2024 03:44 PM

So far this season, there's been a lot of Sisyphus talk, both with the Toronto Raptors and around the NBA. 

As the Raptors embark on this rebuild – which is year one according to Darko Rajakovic – they need to make sure they are not Sisyphus.

Many rebuilding teams have fallen into this trap before. Pushing the tanking boulder up the hill only for the lottery balls to not fall in their favour, or their pick not to hit, leaving them back at square one. In a world of increasingly flattened lottery odds the Detroit Pistons have finished dead last in consecutive seasons, only to be rewarded with the fifth overall pick both times. Those same Pistons haven't had a successful season since the late-aughts – the highest they've finished in the past 17 years is eighth and they haven't won a playoff game since 2008. Bottoming out is not a surefire way back to the top. 

All the while, atrophy sets in. The bad habits that come with losing cascade from one season to the next. The foundation crumbles. 

So, what can the Raptors do to ensure they aren't pushing the proverbial boulder up the hill, only for it to come rolling back down? How can they be certain they are making substantive progress?

The answer might come from Proteus – a Greek god who, in many ways, is the opposite of Sisyphus. 

Proteus is a god of the sea with the ability to predict the future. However, he would change his shape to avoid doing so, answering only those who were able to capture him. Proteus was never stuck in one place. He was always able to adapt. 

If the Raptors are going to actually build towards something better, rather than stagnant, they can't get complacent, they can't simply lose for the sake of losing. 

They will need to be Protean. 

So, how do they do this? 

Marked growth from young players

This could be the most important aspect when it comes to this season being a success. And so far it's going remarkably well. 

Gradey Dick has taken a mammoth leap, both in the amount he scores and how he does it. Last season he was a marksman from the corners, shooting 46.8 percent, second among all rookies (minimum 50 attempts). This year, he has taken fewer corner 3s and more shots everywhere else. Dick's percentage of shots at the rim, from the mid-range, and from above-the-break have all increased. His efficiency from the mid-range and above-the-break have both increased as well. Truly exceptional stuff. Further, Dick's new multifaceted offensive profile, constant movement, and difficult shot diet have opened up the floor for his teammates. Even on possessions he doesn't touch the ball, his cutting often makes sure the low man isn't present to contest someone else's drive.

Fellow Kansas product Ochai Agbaji has also seemingly turned a corner. There must be something special about that room. After joining the Raptors at the trade deadline last season, he struggled. The six-foot-five wing was a 38th percentile finisher at the rim (61 percent) and seventh percentile shooter from the corners (26 percent). Agbaji averaged 6.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists and had a 45.3 true shooting percentage. This season, the former lottery pick is averaging 13 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and has a 63.4 true shooting percentage! Sure, small sample size, whatever. But Agbaji's finishing at the rim has looked tremendously authoritative. And while his 91st percentile corner 3-point shooting (56 percent) may not be sustainable, he will likely fall somewhere closer to his previous career norms in the mid-40s rather than the abysmal numbers we saw during the doldrums of last season. Combine this with his stalwart on-ball defence and you get a bonafide NBA rotation player. A big-time development for the Raptors. 

Second rounders Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead have played more minutes than was originally intended, due to the Raptors injury ravaged roster. For rookies thrust into unexpectedly large roles, both have performed admirably and shown some promising glimpses of what may come. 

Mogbo rules. He has a massive seven-foot-two wingspan and a great feel for the game on defence. The San Francisco product has used these attributes to lead all rookies in deflections and come up with the third most total steals. Before Mogbo grew to have the wingspan, he played his high school days as a guard. This has caused him to have an acute awareness as a playmaker that is unique when considering the rest of his skillset. 

For Shead, it didn't take long to become a fan favourite. In his first play of the preseason, he immediately burst in front of a cutter and stole a pass. He went on to create three more turnovers, drawing two offensive fouls – a moving screen and a push off – and grabbing another steal. The Sheadhead movement as we know it was born. While the Houston product's play has been up and down once the regular season started, he did draw the possibly the greatest compliment a Raptor can get earlier this season. A comparison to Kyle Lowry. 

Both Mogbo and Shead should see time with the Raptors 905 once the team is fully healthy (fingers crossed). Right now, their greatest deficiency is that neither of them can shoot the ball. The Raptors have developed shooters before, namely Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell. This doesn't mean they'll do it again, for every player the Raptors have taught to shoot there's one who they haven't been able to. Mogbo is trying though. He hit his first three of the season, topping his career total in college. 

Siakam and Powell were also drafted in similar positions to Mogbo and Shead, and in Powell and Shead's case, came to the Raptors in a nearly identical fashion (Powell: drafted 46th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks, traded to the Raptors, Shead: drafted 45 overall by the Sacramento Kings, also acquired via trade). This doesn't mean that they are going to be homeruns like Siakam and Powell were, it's very unlikely. But we have seen the difference that later picks popping can have. If either of these new Raptors is able to have a development story a fraction as successful as those two champions, that will be a MASSIVE win for the organization.

Developing an identity on defence

Everybody wants to play offence. So, often the messaging from NBA coaches ends up focused on the defensive side of the ball. 

After successfully instilling the values of a .5, motion-based offence in 2023-24, Rajakovic turned his attention to defence this season. This was brought to our attention on media day, where the biggest talking points were ball pressure, higher pickup points, line of defence. The MIG! Most important guy usually refers to someone who anchors the defence as a backline sweeper. A Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jaren Jackson Jr. type (an area where Scottie Barnes has also excelled). Not for this Raptors team. Instead, the MIG would be the guy at the point-of-attack, where they were tasked with giving the opposing ball handler hell. Blow-up actions, force negative dribbles, eat up time off the shot clock. With the offseason addition of two guards with stellar defensive reputations – Davion "off night" Mitchell and reigning Naismith National Defensive Player of the Year Jamal Shead – the Raptors were positioned to follow through on Rajakovic's words. 

So far, they have emphasized point-of-attack defence, and there has been some serious improvement in the Raptors half-court defence over the last few games. But, overall, the defence hasn't been good, and the new philosophy has generated some adverse side effects. 

The Raptors rank 26th in defensive rating, allowing 118.7 points per 100 possessions and are 25th in halfcourt defence allowing 99.9 points per 100 (on Cleaning the Glass). 

Toronto's downfall? Allowing opponents to take the two most valuable shots in basketball – attempts at the rim and corner 3s – far too often. The Raptors have been meeting the ball higher, have been very aggressive at the point-of-attack and have played a lot of both lock and trail and drop defence. As a result, it's been easier for opposing ball-handlers to gain dribble penetration and ultimately get to the hoop. Toronto is 20th in opponent rim frequency (32.8 percent) as a result. They also aren't doing a good job at protecting the rim when opponents do inevitably get there, ranking 25th in field goal percentage allowed within four feet (69.3 percent). While Jakob Pöltl has a strong track record as a rim-deterrent, the Raptors are putting too much on his plate. The seven-footer is currently allowing the worst defensive field goal percentage within six feet of his career (62.7 percent). Not to take away from the mind-blowing stat lines Pöltl has been putting up. He is essential to everything the Raptors do on offence. The return of a capable weak-side help defender in Barnes could help alleviate the current defensive burden placed on Pöltl. 

The Raptors are also 18th in opponent corner 3-point frequency. This can be partially attributed to them frequently having to send help from the weak-side corner, and their inexperienced personnel often failing to execute the ensuing rotations. 

While accosting opposing ball carriers, the young Raptors are also fouling a ton, resulting in a league high opponent free-throw rate (26.0). Their high pick-up points and attentiveness above -the -break are also causing opponents to take non-corner 3s at the second lowest rate in the league (26.8 percent). Toronto is trying to execute Rajakovic's plan, even if the results have been poor. 

Part of the idea could be that Rajakovic is trying to instill these principles of aggression and work ethic as a foundation (remember his house-building analogy). Once these habits are thoroughly engrained in the team’s defensive identity, it's possible they ease up a bit on the pressure, perhaps being more selective and fluid in their approach. Building this foundation, while causing them to concede points in the short term (not such a bad thing), should ultimately result in a gritty, unflagging defence in the future. And in basketball, like in life, effort (on defence) can go a long way. So, if the Raptors are buying in, that's a good thing.

If this dogged defensive mentality is thoroughly entrenched in the fabric of the team by the end of this season – the same way a motion offence was established last season – that will be a win for Rajakovic and the rebuilding Raptors. 

Establishing a baseline for BBQ

Last season Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley played 439 minutes together across 22 games. And they did well, coming out with a positive 2.9 net rating. However, we need more. The trio only played 234 minutes with Pöltl to the tune of a 10.8 net rating. Maybe most importantly, they only played 27 minutes with Dick, and the Raptors current projected starting five – when healthy – only played five minutes together!

In order to figure out the true potential of this core, they need to play. The data that is collected through hundreds of minutes and thousands of possessions (hopefully) of the Raptors' top talent playing together will be invaluable, and will help inform decisions about how to build the team going forward. Maybe more valuable is BBQ and company building chemistry. As they get these in-game reps together, they will learn each other’s tendencies, pick up on the nuances of how they best work together and eventually, plays that were once clunky will become automatic. 

It is only with this fully actualized version of the Raptors best lineup that we can truly glean meaningful insights. And that version is yet to come.

Masai Ujiri's post-trade phone call with Immanuel Quickley last season was included in an episode of Open Gym. 

"It's an unbelievable fit with you and Scottie, this is exactly what we wanted," Ujiri said. 

But so far, this hasn't come to fruition in their two-man actions. Maybe with more time together, Barnes and Quickley can emulate one of the best screener ball handler duos of all time.

Only time and minutes will tell. But one thing is certain: BBQ playing a sizeable chunk of minutes together this year is vital to the franchise's path forward. Basketball gods, please show mercy and let them cook!

Being fun 

The verdict is out on this one: 

And the Raptors don't have to win to be fun! They've proved that much. 

The fun can come from multiple sources: Watching rookies exceed expectations and start to come into their own. Young players taking the next step and carving out a role for themselves in the league. Close games that we can get invested in for the moment, even if the broader stakes are small. Maybe BBQ finally getting healthy and figuring out how they work best together. Hell, it can even come from off the court in the form of outrageously eclectic outfits and cathartic celebrations. 

Being fun is important. Also, most of what can make these losses fun are precursors for improvement in the future. And the players enjoying themselves can help stave off that apathy and atrophy that can carry losing from one season to the next.

Sure, there is a threshold for how many fun losses can be tolerated. And not every loss will be enjoyable, there will be some clunkers. Yet, if the Raptors can continue to capture the hearts of those who follow them, while being protean and growing towards something better, that has to be considered a success.

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