Which Penguins player is most likely to have a Bryan Rust type bounce back?

30/04/2024 17:24

Bryan Rust bounced back in a big way this season. There are a few candidates on the roster that could follow in his footsteps next season.

At the end of the 2022-23 season the Pittsburgh Penguins were looking like they might have a Bryan Rust problem.

He was coming off one of his least productive seasons in years, and was still just one year into his six-year, $30.7 million contract extension. It was looking like the Penguins had made a pretty big mistake in re-signing him and were going to be on the hook for a rough contract over the next few years.

And who knows, maybe they did make a mistake.

Maybe Rust eventually declines at a rapid rate and does in fact leave the Penguins with an ugly contract on their books.

But in the short-term for the 2023-24 season, Rust bounced back in a big way and put together a huge bounce back year that was actually one of his most productive in the NHL to date. At least on a per-game basis.

The point here is things can change rapidly in sports, and in 12 months Rust went from being a disappointing concern to one of the Penguins' most productive and consistent players.

So it leads to a potential question for the 2024-25 season — can any of the Penguins' biggest disappointments from this past season follow in his footsteps and have a bouce back year?

Let's take a look at some potential candidates.

Likely bounce back: Erik Karlsson

Karlsson is the first player that comes to mind here because he is still one of the most talented players on the roster (and in the league) and still has one of the highest ceilings. I also think we saw some glimpses of what he can still be capable of, and for as disappointing as his year was overall he still finished as one of the top-scoring defensemen in the league.

There is a belief that it can sometimes take defenseman a year to fully get comfortable on a new team and in a new system, and Karlsson did finish the season on a mostly high note (outside of that Detroit game). I do not expect 100 points or a Norris Trophy next year, but he still has top-pairing ability and the production is still mostly there. I think there is a very good chance he is closer to the player we all expected to see next season,

Possible bounce back: Reilly Smith

When the Penguins traded for Smith it seemed like a steal of a move and a perfect replacement for the exiting Jason Zucker.

But Smith's debut season in Pittsburgh left a lot of people down on him for how invisible he was on most nights. He was a disappointment offensively and just never seemed to make any sort of a meaningful impact. But for as disappointing as his numbers were, they were not totally out of character for him. One of the calling cards of Smith's career in the NHL has been his inconsistency from one year to the next.

He has had multiple seasons that have been very similar to his 2023-24 performance in terms of production. In fact, some of them have been very recent.

His 0.53 points per game this season is actually pretty middle of the pack for his career and nowhere near his least productive in the NHL. In fact, during the 2020-21 season with Vegas he had one of the least productive seasons of his career, and then followed it up in 2021-22 with one of his best.

He is a couple of years older at this point, but up-and-down performances from him should be pretty much expected at this point. Assuming he is back in Pittsburgh next season I do not think it would be a shock to see him score 20-25 goals with a fresh start and a full year in Pittsburgh.

Not very likely to bounce back: Rickard Rakell

Rakell's 2023-24 performance was extremely underwhelming and disappointing, especially when compared to how well he played in 2022-23 when he was arguably one of the Penguins' best and most impactful players. Every line he was a part of seemed to improve with his presence.

The unfortunate reality is that season also seemed to be a pretty big outlier from his most recent seasons.

Just consider, for example, his point per game averages over the past five years:

2023-24: 0.21 goals per game, 0.53 points per game
2022-23: 0.34 goals per game, 0.73 points per game
2021-22: 0.29 goals per game, 0.59 points per game
2020-21: 0.17 goals per game, 0.54 points per game
2019-20: 0.23 goals per game, 0.65 points per game
2018-19: 0.26 goals per game. 0.62 points per game

I feel like the 2022-23 season was the outlier and this is just the type of production you should expect at this point. He has some talent, he is a good playmaker, but he is simply not going to be an overall impact player.

This is what he is.

It would hard to be worse, but probably not better: Ryan Graves

Then we have Graves.

I think the fact that Kyle Dubas was so harsh in his post-season assessment of Graves' play was one of the most eye-opening things to come out of the Penguins end-of-season meeting gatherings. I also don't how likely it is that Graves is going to be able to fix the problems Dubas outlined in one offseason at this stage of his career. At this point I feel like you pretty much are what you are showing the league.

I also can't get past the fact that two different teams (both of whom have very highly regarded front offices) were just willing to let Graves go without much of a push to re-sign him or keep him. Teams tend to not want to let good, young defensemen get away if they can help it. Neither team seemed to mind.

Even with all of his flaws, I also feel like the 2023-24 season was especially bad for him and a perfect storm of struggles. It would be nearly impossible for him to be worse in 2024-25. It is one of those "nowhere to go but up" sort of things. I also am not sure how much more up there is to go with him. This might simply be another case of what you see is what you get. That is potentially bad news for both the Penguins defense and their salary cap outlook.