It might be a good time to be a bad team..

11/20/2024 09:45 AM

Timing is everything when it comes to a rebuild

Factors like when generational talents are coming onto the scene are outside of an NHL team's control when it comes to when to rebuild, yet still vitally important. In hockey, as in life, timing is everything.

The Penguins are living examples of that, twenty years ago they were at rock bottom, along with the Washington Capitals and Chicago Blackhawks who were bad at the same time. It was the right time for teams to stack up some great top-5 picks. Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby went to Pittsburgh. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom went to DC. Chicago got Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. That list is littered with future Hall of Famers and the three teams have won seven Stanley Cups and an untold number of regular season games as a result.

Now that the worm has turned, Chicago is already back in the thick of the rebuild through the draft mentality. They took Connor Bedard first in 2023, followed by Artyom Levshunov as the second overall pick in 2024. The Penguins may not be too far off from rejoining the Blackhawks, Pittsburgh ranks 27th in points percentage right now.

Timing again might be coming into favor lately with early looks at prospects who are starting to come onto the scene.

The Athletic's Corey Pronman has two 2025 players he ranks in the "Bubble elite NHL player and NHL All-Star" tier (James Hagens and Porter Martone). Five players in total are projected as at least bubble All-Star and top of the lineup players (Matthew Schaefer, Michael Misa and Roger McQueen joining the three above).

But while 2025 has a deep array of high-end players, it's 2026 that is looking like it could have franchise defining talents.

It comes with an obvious caveat that a lot can change when talking about mostly 16-year old hockey players involved in a draft that is still over 18 months away. However, 2026 is shaping up to be a year to already get excited about as far as elite NHL talent.

The key name to know is Gavin McKenna. The youngster is the ninth player to earn "exceptional status" and get a waiver to join major junior hockey one year early. He's lived up to the hype, scoring 97 points in 61 games last year in the WHL as a 15-year old. McKenna's 44 points (14G+30A) in 22 games puts him atop the WHL scoring race, very impressive for a kid who won't turn 17 until next month.

As Pronman wrote, "His puck skills and hockey sense are elite. He makes highly creative plays routinely and has one of the more special offensive minds I've seen in a prospect in recent years."

"McKenna could've been the first pick last year," prospect guru Craig Button said. "He'd be the first pick this year and there's no doubt who the first pick is next year. "He is one of the very best players outside the NHL. What I see in him is an IQ off the charts and a brilliance that has no limits."

For the teams who don't get the No. 1 overall pick in 2026, there look like some good consolations prizes. Pronman has OHL forward Ethan Belchetz ranked as a super-early No. 2 prospect in 2026, who loves his 6'4, 220 pound frame, physicality and upside.

Button likes Mathias Preston as the early second prospect for 2026, saying "What an impressive, talented, skilled offensive player. Lightning fast hands, lightning quick mind, offensive instincts off the charts. He reminds me of Joe Sakic."

Pronman praises center Ryan Roobreck, his third prospect: "Roobroeck has been hyped for a long time, and it's easy to see why when you watch him. He's big, fast and has a ton of natural offensive gifts to his game" and even wonders if Roobreck could push McKenna as the months and years go by.

The 2027 NHL draft is light years away as far as hockey development goes, but there's already a very, very early name to keep in mind as well. It may be a familiar one to Penguin fans with a good memory.

Landon DuPont is the son of former Penguin (for three whole games!) Micki DuPont. Micki also played parts of two seasons in 2002-03 and 2006-07 with the Wilkes-Barre Penguins.

Landon was just granted exceptional status, and like McKenna did one year earlier, there is another 15-year old dominating the WHL.

Sportsnet with a great headline: "Scout's Analysis: Landon DuPont like Connor Bedard, but on defence"

In my opinion, the look of DuPont's offensive game is eerily similar to Bedard. They're both right shots, similar in stature and powerful skaters in open ice. They shoot the puck in stride off the rush and have a very quick catch and release. They rarely allow opponents time to close on them and intercept pucks.

The current odds of the NHL draft lottery make it challenging for a team to tank and be assured of getting the absolute elite young players, but it looks like the Penguins will certainly be headed for entry into the draft lottery in the near future.

With a little luck, their rebuild could be accelerated if they are the fortunate ones to be picking at the top. The 2025 draft looks like a nice appetizer and sets the table for the future, where early signs are showing the prizes in the 2026 and 2027 drafts could be the type of franchise-changing talent next to come onto the scene.