Vancouver Canucks' Quinn Hughes

12/12/2024 11:09 AM

At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, if the Vancouver Canucks didn’t have Quinn Hughes on the roster, they probably wouldn’t be in the playoff conversation.

Sure, it’s not such a hot take to suggest that a team losing its top defenceman would become a worse version of itself, but the level that Hughes impacts the Canucks is superior to almost any other player in the NHL. He's integral to the operation.

As Conor Garland said Tuesday, Hughes is "one of the two to three best players in the world."

Following what could be looked at as a fortuitous season in 2023-24, with plenty of good breaks going the Canucks’ way, the bill seems to have come due for them this season.

The injury bug has hit them with key pieces in Thatcher Demko, Brock Boeser, and now Filip Hronek missing time. There has also been the personal leave for JT Miller, though he seems close to returning to game action. Elias Pettersson hasn't been his normal self outside of some spurts of the play we're used to seeing from him. It's been a weird season.

Through all of this, the Canucks have survived and managed to hold a playoff spot down as they inch closer to the midway mark of the season. The catalyst for that, perhaps unsurprisingly, has been their reigning Norris Trophy winner.

We all saw what he could do last year, and despite solid play in his first five NHL seasons, it felt like he found a ceiling that was even higher than anticipated. He had more pressure on his shoulders being named captain of a Canadian franchise, but also an aura of determination and will to drive his team back to the playoffs. This season it feels like he's broken through that ceiling, and the Canucks have needed it.

Aside from the aforementioned absences, the departure of some key pieces such as Nikita Zadorov and Ian Cole on the back end over the summer, and the struggles of some of their new additions, has left Hughes to shoulder a major load on this Canucks defence, and he’s flourishing.

According to Natural Stat Trick, among NHL defencemen with over 200 minutes played so far this season, Hughes is in the top-10 of shot attempt share (59.43%), expected goals for percentage (58.69%), and goals for (30) when he's on the ice for the Canucks.

It's impressive, but not unexpected or out of the norm for a defenceman of his calibre.

The thing that does make this impressive is the relative struggles the rest of the Canucks players are having on the back end. This was exemplified in Tuesday's game against St. Louis:

On the season as a whole every other regular member of the defence — Carson Soucy, Tyler Myers, Vincent Desharnais, Erik Brannstrom, and Noah Juulsen — are at or below 50 per cent shot attempt share at 5-on-5. They each have also been on the ice for more goals against than goals for, save for Brannstrom with a slight one goal edge in his favour. They are all below 50 per cent in high danger chances for, except Desharnais (52%), and he has benefitted from limited offensive-zone starts.

Those five have been outscored by a total of 19 goals at 5-on-5. That's not ideal.

The only other regular member of the defence that hasn't struggled is Hronek, Hughes' regular partner, whose numbers are all fairly respectable and close to where Hughes is at while playing together.

On an eye-test level, the Canucks have struggled to connect passes on breakouts and, outside of Hughes, Hronek and Brannstrom to an extent, Vancouver’s defenders have failed to create enough offensively.

It's a problem that hasn't solved itself as the season has progressed, and one that will likely persist until they address their needs outside of the top pair.

Amidst all this, Hughes continues to thrive. He's on pace for a career-high in points at 97, goals at 21, and has continued to carry that success through key absences on the roster.

In Miller's 10-game absence, Hughes is the only player on the Canucks roster with a better than 50 per cent shot share, and averaging being on the ice for over a goal per game. He’s the team’s leading defender in expected goals for in this time.

Hronek has been out for six games now and in that time Hughes is still the only player on the roster who has a better than 50 per cent shot attempt share and averaging being on the ice for over a goal per game. Without Hronek, Hughes has been the second-best Canucks defenceman in expected goals for, trailing only Tyler Myers, who conveniently has replaced Hronek as Hughes’ partner.

The other thing that stands out is how much Hughes’ elite teammates are struggling when he’s not on the ice. This could be seen as a concern for the Canucks, but it's also the mark of a franchise-altering player.

Here are Miller’s stats with Hughes on the ice (125 minutes at 5-on-5):
61.35% Corsi For
64.91% High Danger Chances For
63.31% Expected Goals For
10 Goals For
6 Goals Against

Now, Miller without Hughes (91 minutes at 5-on-5):
39.22% Corsi For
37.04% High Danger Chances For
40.83% Expected Goals For
2 Goals For
3 Goals Against

That's a wild difference. Miller has shown he can be an elite player individually at times, but this highlights just how much Hughes can shift the tides of play when he's on the ice.

For another example, let’s take a look at Elias Pettersson with Hughes on the ice (161 minutes at 5-on-5):
59.94% Corsi For
53.97% High Danger Chances For
58.69% Expected Goals For
6 Goals For
6 Goals Against

And Pettersson without Hughes on the ice (209 minutes at 5-on-5):
45.78% Corsi For
55.00% High Danger Chances For
53.42% Expected Goals For
11 Goals For
10 Goals Against

Not as substantial of a drop off as Miller is experiencing without Hughes, but enough to show that Hughes improves Pettersson's game, too, even if the results haven’t been there yet. It’s notable that most of Pettersson’s minutes with Hughes have come when Miller’s been out of the lineup.

As for how Hronek does, here’s how he looks with Hughes on the ice (304 minutes at 5-on-5):
59.90% Corsi For
65.38% High Danger Chances For
61.63% Expected Goals For
18 Goals For
10 Goals Against

And how Hronek does without Hughes on the ice (83 minutes at 5-on-5):
46.31% Corsi For
46.43% High Danger Chances For
45.58% Expected Goals For
7 Goals For
1 Goals Against

The results for Hronek may have been there in his limited minutes without Hughes, but the process certainly was nowhere close to as effective. That's not to say Hronek has been bad without Hughes, just that when paired together they are one of the most dominant duos in the league.

Meanwhile, here's what Hughes' numbers look like without any one of Miller, Pettersson, or Hronek on the ice in 119 minutes at 5-on-5:

57.01% Corsi For
47.37% High Danger Chances For
53.83% Expected Goals For
7 Goals For
3 Goals Against

It's not perfect, but this clearly shows that Hughes is the driver of this team.

The type of season Hughes is having so far not only shoots him to the front of Norris Trophy conversations once again, but should have him earning the eye of Hart Trophy voters. Aside from the underlying numbers, the eye test will also show that Hughes holds the line like few others in the league, exists the defensive zone as well or better than anyone, and regularly breaks the ankles of his opponents with how shifty he can be.

Hughes is a treat to watch every night and is driving this Canucks team through some early-season challenges. He is a unique type of player.