Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

06/24/2024 06:32 PM

The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it's time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Stars.

A quiet 2023 offseason outside of the addition of Matt Duchene yielded the same results for the Stars – a Western Conference Final elimination. Improvement from their budding stars like Wyatt Johnston and a true breakout season on the blue line from Thomas Harley helped Dallas reach 113 points in the regular season, their second-most in franchise history. They’re already facing one significant loss heading into next season, though, with veteran fixture Joe Pavelskiexpected to retire. Accordingly, it’s likely another summer of minor surgery for general manager Jim Nill, coming off his second Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award.

Fill A Top-Six Forward Spot

At first glance, this doesn’t seem like a pressing team for a Stars offense that finished third in the NHL last season. But Pavelski and Duchene, who’s a pending UFA, were big parts of that, contributing 52 goals and 132 points between the two of them. They can’t lose both and expect to still be the team they were this season. While the production of one could be replaced by continued improvement from Johnston or strong rookie campaigns from Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven, asking them to offset the loss of both is a tough ask to put on the young future of your franchise.

There’s an easy way to check this box – re-up Duchene, who was more than effective for his $3MM cap hit. He’ll earn a slight raise on it this offseason, but there’s mutual interest in an extension, and he’s expressed a willingness to take a discount on his market value to stay in Dallas. It certainly helps that he’s still receiving $1.56MM per year from the Predators, who bought out the final three seasons of his prior contract last summer, through 2028-29.

In case they can’t keep Duchene from going to market, though, they’ll need to find somebody who can slot into a top-six spot on the right wing, preferably for under $5MM a season against the cap. Even at 32, Tyler Seguin still has enough juice in the tank to comfortably handle a top-six role, especially if the center responsibilities are being dedicated to Johnston and Roope Hintz. They will need an upgrade on someone like Evgenii Dadonov, though, who currently projects as their second-line RW but had only 23 points in 51 games this year. If they do need to hit the free agent market for a Duchene replacement, someone like Anthony Duclair, Anthony Mantha or Vladimir Tarasenko could be an appropriately priced option.

Start Oettinger Extension Talks

Things have been a tad up-and-down for Jake Oettinger since he took over the Dallas crease from Anton Khudobin in 2021, but a good playoff showing has him back to being a largely consensus top-ten netminder in the league. Even at his worst, he’s a slightly above-average goalie, evidenced by his career-low .905 SV% this season. Injuries were a bit of a concern, limiting him to 53 starts, but at his peak, he’s a game-altering talent.

He’s shown it multiple times, whether it be his .919 SV% and 37-11-11 record in 2022-23 that earned him fifth place in Vezina Trophy voting or his .954 SV% in a seven-game loss to the Flames in the first round in 2022 that has gone down as one of the better netminding performances in a series loss in league history. He’s worth shelling out for among a current crop of goalies that, aside from the very few elite, tend to have real stinker seasons at least every once in a while.

Now, as he enters the final season of a respectable three-year, $4MM AAV bridge deal, Nill needs to decide how far he’s willing to go on a long-term deal for his star netminder. If he gets it done early this summer – a realistic scenario given his otherwise light free-agent workload – it could come in a tad north of $8MM annually on a long-year deal. That’s a lower percentage of the cap than recent long-term deals for more highly-regarded netminders like Connor Hellebuyck and Ilya Sorokin and a good bit below what it’s expected to take for the Rangers to retain Igor Shesterkin.

New Deal For Harley

While the Stars have only a few impact UFAs to deal with, the list is even smaller for impact RFAs. Only two saw consistent playing time in the playoffs, and only one was deployed in high-usage situations – Thomas Harley.

The 22-year-old isn’t eligible for arbitration but is due a significant raise coming off his entry-level contract. Drafted 18th overall in 2019, Harley dethroned Ryan Suter for top-pairing duties alongside Miro Heiskanen early in the season and never looked back. He finished the campaign with 15 goals and 47 points in 79 games, finishing second among Dallas defenders in average time on ice with 21:01. His possession game with Heiskanen was strong, controlling 55.6% of shot attempts when on the ice at even strength.

He’s a core piece of their team and could very well serve as Heiskanen’s partner for the next decade if their results together this season are any indication. With the Stars in a bit of a cap crunch, though, expect them to opt for a bridge deal while they load up in a continued effort to make their second Stanley Cup Final appearance of the decade. Evolving Hockey pegs his new contract at a two-year term with an AAV close to $4MM, a safe bet for positive value considering his showing this year.

Add RD Depth

The Stars still have Esa Lindell and Suter signed next season behind Harley, so their left side is likely already locked in. But behind Heiskanen, who’s a lefty playing the right side anyway, there’s a lot of uncertainty.

Like Duchene, Nill is expected to make a big push to keep trade deadline acquisition Chris Tanev from heading to market next week. He was stellar in a second-pairing shutdown role alongside Lindell, controlling play well and posting two assists and a +7 rating in 19 playoff games. Even if he comes back, though, there’s a tossup behind him.

Jani Hakanpää is a cheap candidate to re-sign, but he provides much of the same services as Tanev and would likely be ruled expendable if the latter is extended. Nils Lundkvist had 13 points in 59 regular-season games but struggled early in postseason action and was a frequent healthy scratch in the later rounds. It’s fair to assume he won’t be relied upon for much of anything by head coach Peter DeBoer if he’s qualified and brought back next season. Lian Bichsel, while a strong prospect who could challenge for a roster spot out of camp, is also a lefty. Asking him to play his off side, even alongside a veteran like Suter, is an irresponsible ask.

That makes it clear that, even outside of Tanev, adding a right-shot defender will be a priority for Nill when the UFA market opens on July 1.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.