Start Vs. Sit: Carey up to the task in Week 5?

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07/02/2024 03:00 PM

Week 5 of CFL Fantasy play should be better for pivots than Week 4, where only Hamilton's Bo Levi Mitchell (20.9 fantasy points) and BC's Vernon Adams (20.3 FP) were the only quarterbacks to eclipse the 20 FP barrier.

Injuries will affect Week 5. Saskatchewan placed quarterback Trevor Harris on the 6-game injured list while Winnipeg's Zach Collaros ($11,500) was injured in the Bombers' Week 4 heartbreaker at Calgary, leaving his status as something to watch for Friday's game against the REDBLACKS. With those thoughts in mind, let's introduce our Week 5 Start vs. Sit.

Toronto (2-1-0) at Saskatchewan (3-0-0), Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Toronto (-3)

O/U: 48 (-105)

Start: Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Toronto, 10,400 salary

Carey is the one constant in a Toronto offence that has been a roller coaster ride. The veteran scored a modest 11.7 fantasy points in the Week 4 loss to Montreal. His solid fantasy numbers (17.8 FP) come from a commitment to give him the ball. Carey has 54 touches from scrimmage, a trend that will continue Thursday night.

Facing a Saskatchewan defence that has allowed a league-low 32.7 yards per game on the ground is daunting, but we feel Carey will be able to wear down the Riders' run D. Carey failed to score a major in Week 4, an oversight he should change this week.

Sit: Shea Patterson, QB, Saskatchewan, $5,400 salary

The Riders' short-yardage quarterback is now the starter for the near future. While Patterson brings a stellar background, he threw all of six passes last season and completed only four of his 10 attempts for 14 yards after replacing Trevor Harris in the Week 3 win over Hamilton.
To his credit, Patterson has recorded rushing majors in each of the last two games, so while his presence at the goal line enhances his potential, Patterson will have to be a much more efficient passer to help both the Riders and fantasy players. Even against a suspect Argos’ pass defence, it's difficult to envision Patterson scoring beyond 12-14 FP in a best-case scenario.

Ottawa (2-1-0) at Winnipeg (0-4-0), Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Winnipeg (-2.5)

O/U: 46.5 (-105)

Start: Ryquell Armstead, RB, Ottawa, $4,500 salary

Armstead is now a productive value play who is becoming one of the league's best dual-threat backs. He's coming off of a Week 4 that produced 16.4 FP while accounting for 104 yards from scrimmage on 14 touches. Armstead has yet to find the end zone, something we feel changes this week.

Although the Blue Bombers allow 94.5 rushing yards per game, the fact is they've allowed opponents to generate a whopping 33:05 time of possession. That plays well with Armstead's strengths and could see him get at least 16-18 touches on Friday. Add Armstead to your lineup and turn those saved fantasy bucks into elite receivers.

Sit: Any Winnipeg receiver not named Nic Demski

No one envisioned a Blue Bombers’ offence that has managed one passing major and that backup/short-yardage quarterback Chris Streveler ($7,000) has accounted for five of the team's seven offensive touchdowns. Add the absence of Kenny Lawler and Dalton Schoen and one can begin to understand why avoiding Winnipeg players is an unthinkable yet cruel reality.

Demski is seventh in the league with 32 targets, including 10 in last week's loss to Calgary. Regardless of who's atop the depth chart at pivot, Demski is the top option for the Blue Bombers’ passing game. He has averaged 14.5 FP in the last two games and should be able to maintain that pace against a REDBLACKS’ pass defence that's seventh with 333.7 passing yards allowed.

Calgary (2-1-0) at Montreal (4-0-0), Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

Line: Montreal (-9.5)

O/U: 50.5 (-110)

Start: Kaion Julien-Grant, WR, Montreal, $6,700 salary

Even with the return of Reggie White, Jr. ($5,400) and the emergence of Cole Spieker ($6,000), Julien-Grant remains the Alouettes' second option behind Tyson Philpot ($10,000). He's caught at least six passes in each of the past three games while being targeted at least seven times in the same span. Julien-Grant is also one of only four receivers with at least 100 yards after the catch, making him a threat to score each time Cody Fajardo ($14,000) looks in his direction.

The Stamps are second in the league in pass defence (271.3 yards allowed per game), yet they will be challenged by Montreal's diverse receiving corps. Philpot will get plenty of attention from the Calgary secondary and that leaves Julien-Grant available for favourable matchups. Don't be surprised if he exceeds his average of 12.2 FP.

Sit: Reggie Begelton, WR, Stampeders, $11,900 salary

We whiffed on Begelton breaking out in Week 4 as he managed a mere 50 yards on seven receptions and 14 targets. A 7.1 average yards per catch is a disappointing total for a receiver who has averaged twice his current average throughout his career.

Jake Maier ($12,000) made a concerted effort to get Begelton the ball against Winnipeg but was only effective on short routes. If the Stampeders intend to keep the Alouettes their first loss of the season this week, finding ways to make Begelton more than just a dump-off option is paramount.

BC (3-1-0) at Hamilton (0-4-0), Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET

Line: BC (-5.5)

O/U: 52.5 (-110)

Start: Shemar Bridges, WR Tiger-Cats, $4,500 salary

Like Ottawa's Ryquell Armstead, Bridges is a productive fantasy option at a low cost. He continued his eye-opening debut season with 15.9 FP in losing to BC on Sunday, catching a major for the third straight game. He has averaged 19.2 FP and as long as Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,900) continues to target him frequently, don't expect a decline.

Mitchell has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of the last three games and should continue the current streak. Mitchell is throwing the ball north 35-40 times per game, making Bridges a must-have in your fantasy lineup.

Sit: Ayden Eberhardt, WR, Lions, $3,500 salary

A rush on Eberhardt's fantasy value is to be expected after he delivered 13.8 FP in Week 4 while leading the receiving corps with 78 yards on six catches and seven targets. The Elks allowed the Lions one pass play of over 30 yards, effectively keeping Justin McInnis ($9,000) in check while keeping Alexander Hollins ($13,500) out of the end zone.

Trust us, that will change when the Lions face a Ticats defence allowing 31.2 points per game. Vernon Adams Jr. ($14,500) will get his two biggest weapons back in tune, so don't expect Eberhardt to be the favoured receiver of choice. This will be a week where Hollins and McInnis reward fantasy players for giving them a second chance after the disappointing numbers in Week 4.