Ferguson: 5 reasons why the Bombers turned things around

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10/03/2024 03:00 PM

By far, without question, the most confounding and confusing storyline of the 2024 CFL season to me is the Winnipeg Blue Bombers starting 0-4 and having a chance to clinch the West Division this weekend.

Coach hirings and firings, quarterback controversies, and an unusually strong year for the East are all noteworthy, but Winnipeg's ascent back to the mountaintop from Manitoba to British Columbia looked damn near impossible after the first month of the season.

As always, my mind then turns to the question of how?

HOW has Winnipeg been able to turn this around? It turns out all they had to do was follow the blueprint of the past four years when they went to the Grey Cup every November.

I looked back at last season for recent data to see what Winnipeg does well when they are at their best and compared it with both the numbers after Week 4 this season and where we stand today to get a sense for how they've righted their ship and season.

BRADY’S BOUNCEBACK

When the Bombers are at their best over the last five years, running backs have been the soul and motor of the attack. From Andrew Harris to Brady Oliveira, the league-leader in rushing has often been in blue and gold. In 2023, Winnipeg led the CFL with 139.1 rushing yards per game. Currently that number has reached 109.4 rushing yards per game with Oliveira carrying a CFL-leading 79.1 of them per game.

In 2023 Oliveira only had six rushes of 20 yards or more. Through the 0-4 start he had one, now he has TEN, nearly doubling most other players at his position for explosive runs.

The one confusing note might be scoring. 13 total touchdowns in 2023 led the CFL for Oliveira. Through the first month of the season he had 13 catches but no touchdowns rushing or receiving and stands today with only three total touchdowns despite the turnaround.

I have to believe down the stretch that number gets at least doubled and he likely matches his regular season total over the playoff run in a late season scoring surge.

GETTING AHEAD OF THE STICKS

It's no secret good CFL teams set themselves up for success by getting ahead of the down and distance early. In 2023, the Bombers led the CFL with an average first down gain of 7.44 yards. After the 0-4 start they were fourth in the CFL at 6.72 and as numbers have fallen through the season, Winnipeg is currently first in the CFL at 6.0 yards gained per first down. It’s a lower number, but they’re back on top, which is a staple of their offence improving.

LOCK DOWN DEFENCE

Tyrell Ford with his sixth interception of the season and second of the day to seal the deal late for Winnipeg! #CFLGameDay
: @ctv
: CFL+ pic.twitter.com/s3edhsWx0Z
— CFL (@CFL) September 7, 2024

Okay, enough about the running back and first down splits. Defence, DEFENCE, DEFENCE!!

In 2023 Winnipeg led the CFL in passing yards allowed per game (229.4) and after four losses this year they were sixth in the league (269.8). After turning things around on the back end, the Bombers are back to first and are now challenging their 2023 mark to the tune of 233.6 passing yards per game allowed entering Week 18.

Pass efficiency is another tricky metric to quantify for many, but the numbers don't lie. 2023 saw Winnipeg lead the CFL allowing opposing quarterbacks an 81.7 efficiency mark. After the 0-4 start that number was 99.1 (fourth) and now it's dropped to 85.8 (first).

As for explosive plays, the improvement has been marginal since Week 4 when Winnipeg was tied for last with seven plays of 30-yards or more allowed through the air to fourth in the CFL now with 21 explosives allowed. Last year they were also fourth in the league (26 allowed).

THE COLLAROS COMEBACK

If Brady Oliviera is the soul and engine, Zach Collaros is the brains of the operation. This team could not turn things around unless Zach did, and Zach is clearly back to his old tricks.

Better protection certainly helps this. The Bombers gave up seven sacks through their 0-4 start and have currently allowed 27 sacks total (fourth). Last year they were second in pass protection by sacks with 33 allowed. Sacks as a whole are down across the CFL this season, but this is still a great improvement in a critical indicator stat.

This is my favourite number breakdown of the entire Bombers turnaround. When Winnipeg has been great over the last four Grey Cup appearances, Collaros has been breaking opponents over his knee with explosive plays at the most painful time. In 2023 he completed 45.1 per cent of deep shots (41/91) for 1,505 yards, 16 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Those are wild numbers by any unrealistic standard.

Through the 0-4 start, Collaros was hitting on just 21.1 per cent of home run attempts (4/19) with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Currently he is 23/63 on throws of 20-yards or more in the air (36.5 per cent completion) with five touchdowns and four interceptions.

All of this means since the 0-4 start, Collaros has gone 19/44 (43.1 per cent completion) for five touchdowns and two interceptions. THAT is the Zach of 2023 and one of the biggest reasons the Bombers feel like themselves again.

DISCIPLINE

Mike O'Shea coached clubs will always have discipline, but it was lacking through the slow start. In 2023 Winnipeg had 100 total penalties (5.6 per game). At 0-4 they had 28 already (7.0 per game) and now have 85 (5.7 per game) nearly duplicating their 2023 per game rate.

In 2023 on defence they took 33 penalties which was 12 better than second place Ottawa. Through four losses this season, they had taken eight defensive penalties and now have 31 on the year for top spot in the CFL and three better than second place Toronto.

Perhaps most impressive of all is the special teams discipline. Last year the Bombers took a CFL-low 21 penalties in the important third phase of the game. Through the 0-4 start they had eight already (fourth in CFL) and currently are back to a CFL-best 19. That means Winnipeg has taken just 11 special teams penalties in 11 games. Elite.