UFC 311, The Morning After: Yet Another 'Fraud Check?'
01/19/2025 10:15 AM
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"Fraud check" is THE phrase of the 2020s in MMA.
How many times have we seen this cycle play out? A young prospect with a flashy style joins the Octagon ranks. He styles on a few opponents who usually don't have impressive UFC records. The hype builds and the betting odds swell. A fight or two later, that exciting youth is getting blanketed by an unheralded (but actually pretty good) UFC veteran, busting parlays and inciting angry calls of "FRAUD CHECK" from the nosebleeds.
This is not a new phenomena even if the term is recent. Young prospects have been getting wrestled since the dawn of MMA. In the past, however, it seemed like fight fans were a little more hip to the concept. Any time a slick striker started to rise, somebody would be in the comments wondering "but has he faced a wrestler yet?" Nobody is asking those questions anymore, so we're just left with angry accusations of fraud when the inevitable happens.
Payton Talbott is the latest example. He's a really slick striker with great fighting instincts and considerable physical gifts. The 26-year-old was also just 9-0 prior to last night, which is a little early to be a 12-1 favorite. Talbott doesn't have control of the betting odds, of course, but his opponent Raoni Barcelos injected some reality into the situation.
Here's the kicker: Barcelos is quite good. We're talking about a lifelong martial artist. He's a national wrestling champion in Brazil with a bunch of jiu-jitsu accolades and a father who has a freaking coral belt. Barcelos started his UFC career off with a 5-0 run, only slowing down because he ran into several really good fighters as he entered his late 30s.
Simply put, losing to Barcelos doesn't mean Talbott sucks. Barcelos has more than twice the experience and a lot more years on the mats than Talbott. It really shouldn't be such a shock that a fighter entering his 10th pro fight still needs more seasoning.
What's the cause in the shift, the move from "good prospects sometimes lose while learning" to "he's no longer undefeated therefore fraud?" It's a consequence of the UFC's desperate search for new stars. The whole UFC system right now is built upon bringing in a heap of young fighters from Contenders Series and marketing any of them who win a couple fights in a row as The Next Big Thing™.
Spoiler: most aren't.
It's pretty simple arithmetic that for every Sean O'Malley or Alex Pereira who rises through the ranks in explosive fashion, a bunch more athletes are going to hit stumbling blocks. Payton Talbott is not the one in a million fighter who is world-class at everything just a handful of fights into his career. Nobody would have thought otherwise were it not for the marketing push behind him.
The bottom line here is that Talbott can still be a talented young fighter even after losing a fight. He still could accomplish great things in the cage. MMA fans used to pride themselves on loving fighters with multiple losses in contrast with boxing's unholy focus on padded records. By modern standards, Charles Oliveira was fraud checked eight times before winning and defending UFC gold.
Fueled by sports betting and the marketing machine, expectations are now outlandish. Talbott is nowhere near the first to get burned nor will he be the last.
For complete UFC 311 results and play-by-play, click here.
