Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Preliminary Finals

Today at 03:14 AM

We're into week three of the 2024 finals series and two huge Preliminary Finals await.

We kick things off on Friday night with the Swans hosting the Power at the SCG, while Saturday plays host to Geelong and Brisbane at the MCG.

Which two sides will progress to this year's Grand Final?

See our tips for both games below.

Sydney v Port Adelaide

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – SCG

An intriguing battle awaits with the First Preliminary Final as Sydney enters as hot favourites despite having lost to Port Adelaide in their last eight games head-to-head.

While the recent head-to-head record isn't favourable, most expect the Swans to be able to turn things around against Ken Hinkley's men given they've earned the week off and possess home ground advantage at the SCG.

For the Power, they responded to their disastrous Qualifying Final loss to Geelong by doing enough to beat Hawthorn in last Friday's Semi-Final. Port Adelaide brought the heat from a pressure perspective in that game and if they're to progress to their first decider since 2007, they're going to need to do similar in this one.

Sydney has played just once this September, beating GWS in a Qualifying Final at the SCG 88-82 after storming home late.

The last time the teams met it was one of the most surprising results in recent AFL memory, with the Power beating ladder-leaders Sydney by 112 points at the Adelaide Oval. Given that game was in just Round 21, surely they'll take a lot of confidence from it to the SCG.

Despite all of those records and recent form, the Swans have been the best team all year and have the class across the ground to win this game with one burst of footy.

If the Power are any chance, they'd want to jump the Swans early who have been slow starters in 2024 despite their dominance.

The pick has to be the Swans, but don't expect Port to just roll over.

Tip Sydney by 24 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Geelong v Brisbane

Saturday - 5:15pm AEST – MCG

Brisbane came from 44 points down in the third quarter to storm over the top of GWS last weekend in dramatic scenes.

It was the equal third biggest finals comeback in history and has the Lions into a fourth preliminary final under Chris Fagan.

Geelong has enjoyed a week off after the crushing 84-point Qualifying Final win over Port Adelaide.

Remarkably, this is the ninth prelim for the Cats under Chris Scott.

It's also the third recent Preliminary Final between the Cats and Lions, with Geelong winning by 40 points in 2020 at the Gabba and by 71 points in 2022 at the MCG. This is the fourth ever final between the two clubs - all have been prelims.

Head-to-head of late, the Cats have won six of the last eight meetings dating back to 2020.

On paper, the Lions should be fairly firm favourites. They possess more scoring power and their top echelon group of players appears to be deeper, but the Cats are coached by Chris Scott and know how to get it done in September.

The Lions are up against it, coming from fifth and playing on the road last week, but if they are ever to win a flag under Fagan, they must salute in this prelim.

You are never confident taking on the Cats in a final, but much better Geelong sides than this have lost finals recently.

As long as the Lions take their chances early and set themselves up in the first half, then they should have enough quality to get the job done. But it will be no easy feat.

Brisbane in a tight one.

Tip: Brisbane by 7 points.

Andrew Slevison